Chapter 1: The Reliability of Covid-19 Data

Throughout the pandemic, there has been significant discourse surrounding the reported Covid-19 statistics from various countries. Whether it's the stark contrast in death rates between countries like France and Lithuania, or why Peru's death toll stands out among Latin American nations, global health data has captured our attention for the past three years.

However, it’s often the case that this information is not entirely accurate. Even prior to 2020, many countries struggled to compile reliable national statistics. Accurately tracking and reporting mortality can be quite challenging, requiring resources, time, and expertise that are often scarce in under-resourced regions.

Globally, efforts have been ongoing for decades to aid nations in reporting vital statistics, as this task remains complex. Surprisingly, in numerous countries, it's still relatively common for both births and deaths to go unrecorded by the national government. This presents significant issues when trying to ascertain how many individuals have succumbed to specific infectious diseases.

Chapter 2: Identifying Potentially Fabricated Data

We were aware of these challenges even before the pandemic hit. For instance, the reliability of India's officially reported Covid-19 death statistics is questionable, as excess death counts indicate that a far greater number of people perished than those recognized in the official figures.

What might be less known is that in certain countries, the issue goes beyond mere reporting difficulties; some data may very well be fabricated. Indeed, there is a possibility that certain nations have completely invented their Covid-19 statistics, a concern that remains largely unnoticed by the general public.

How can we discern implausible data?

Much of the following information stems from the insightful research of Dmitry Kobak, a research scientist in Germany who has extensively analyzed likely fabricated Covid-19 statistics as well as excess mortality figures. If you’re interested in delving deeper, he has authored an accessible scientific article discussing the inconsistencies in Covid-19 death statistics.

The fundamental principle behind identifying questionable Covid-19 data is straightforward — we expect genuine vital statistics to adhere to specific patterns. Death data tends to be influenced by various random or semi-random factors, from timelines for death certification to governmental aggregation efforts, alongside the natural variation in mortality rates. When examining the Covid-19 death data from numerous countries, one typically observes considerable messiness, which is to be expected.

For instance, the data from countries like Belgium, Denmark, and the UK exhibit high variance, indicating that they are unlikely to have falsified their Covid-19 death statistics. However, when individuals attempt to fabricate truly random data, it often results in recognizable patterns. Consequently, one method to identify potential data fabrication is to determine if the variance is lower than anticipated.

In some instances, the implausibility of Covid-19 data is so apparent that statistical expertise is unnecessary for recognition. Take the Covid-19 death statistics reported by Belarus during 2020 and 2021 as an example:

From April to November 2020, Belarus reported a mere four deaths daily, with minor fluctuations. Following that, the figure shifted to ten deaths daily, again with minimal variation. A simple visual inspection reveals that the variance here is alarmingly low.

Dr. Kobak employs a statistical approach to evaluate the credibility of reported death statistics across various nations, uncovering countries with variance levels that are significantly below what chance would suggest. Nations such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Syria, and Uzbekistan feature on this list. Nicaragua stands out particularly, having reported precisely one Covid-19 death each week from October 15, 2020, until January 10, 2022, a situation that raises eyebrows.

While this statistical analysis indicates that the death data in these countries is suspicious, it does not definitively prove fabrication. There could be legitimate reasons for such low variance, including flaws in the reporting system. However, as Dr. Kobak emphasizes, examining the excess death counts in these nations reveals significantly higher figures than the official mortality statistics, suggesting a substantial number of unreported Covid-19 deaths. It seems somewhat fortuitous for the leaders of these countries that they managed to underreport Covid-19 deaths so dramatically, whether by design or oversight.

Chapter 3: The Implications of Data Integrity

So, why is this significant?

Primarily, people continue to rely on death statistics from these nations despite the apparent issues. For example, a 2020 article in the British Medical Journal queried how Belarus could have one of the lowest death rates in Europe, failing to consider that the reported figures might simply be fabricated. In Serbia, after the government claimed success in 2020, it was revealed in 2021 that officials had likely neglected to report Covid-19 deaths.

Many of these discrepancies have already surfaced through excess death statistics, and most individuals are now cognizant that not all reported Covid-19 data can be taken at face value. However, this concern persists, even in 2022. Throughout the pandemic, we have frequently compared countries in search of insights on better management strategies, and while some data has been of high quality, much of it has not.

Before Covid-19, it would have been unimaginable to accept reported statistics uncritically. However, in the overwhelming deluge of data over the past three years, this has become alarmingly commonplace. Media narratives emerge weekly, juxtaposing countries like Australia and Albania, often without acknowledging the potential shortcomings in the data used for such comparisons.

Although not all data is fabricated, some certainly is. Moreover, there's a plethora of low-quality information surrounding Covid-19. This doesn't mean comparisons should cease entirely, but it does underscore the need for caution when making assertions about differences between countries. One must always consider the possibility that the data being referenced might have been entirely invented.