This ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine mirrors ancient historical battles, such as those between the Persians and Greeks at Thermopylae, Marathon, and Salamis. Once again, the West confronts autocratic regimes in a cultural struggle where citizen-led armies face off against subservient military forces. With Russia fighting solo and lacking Western allies, the outcomes are as predictable as the captured artillery from Russia's naval base in Crimea. The historical pattern is clear: waging a significant war without support often leads to defeat. History does not present fresh narratives but rather repeats old tales with new actors.

From the dawn of civic nationalism over two millennia ago, such movements have often triumphed over autocratic regimes and kleptocracies. Even when democratic armies suffer temporary setbacks, like Rome's loss at Cannae or the U.S. at Pearl Harbor, they often rebound through civic accountability and civilian oversight. Conversely, autocracies typically falter when faced with adversity, as described in Victor Davis Hanson's Carnage and Culture. The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is yet another iteration of this age-old struggle, echoing historical battles like Marathon and Salamis. Other notable instances of citizen armies overcoming autocratic forces include:

• The French revolutionary army's triumph over the serf armies of Austria and Prussia at Valmy in 1793.
• Napoleon's decisive victory at Austerlitz in 1805, which led Tsar Alexander I to remark on the vast power difference.
• The Spanish war of independence from 1808 to 1814, introducing the term "guerrilla" for asymmetric warfare.
• The Dutch victory in their 80-year struggle for independence, which birthed the bond market covenant prioritizing contracts over rulers.
• Israel's citizen reserve forces defeating multiple Arab armies in 1948 and 1967.
• The Japan-U.S. conflict from Pearl Harbor through Midway, where improvisation led to significant victories.

In this cultural enterprise, the "Rest" can only prevail through guerrilla warfare that mirrors the Western model of civic nationalism. The Ukrainian resistance exemplifies this modern narrative. Other 20th-century successes in turning the tables include:

• Algeria's independence war against France from 1954 to 1962.
• Cuba's revolution against the U.S.-backed Batista regime between 1953 and 1959.
• Partisan resistance against Germans on the Eastern front, predominantly in Ukraine and Belarus.
• Vietnam's enduring fight against French and American forces from 1946 to 1975, where the Viet Minh and Viet Cong recognized the futility of seeking outright military victory.
• The Sandinista victory in Nicaragua over the American-supported Somoza regime in 1979.

Key elements present in successful citizen army campaigns include:

• The loss of external support for the defeated regime, as seen with Somoza, Batista, and French colonial powers.
• The citizen guerrilla army receiving backing from a stronger external power, like the Viet Cong's support from the USSR.
• Confusion among the defeated regime's troops regarding the war's purpose, stemming from unclear political objectives from their backers. Examples include the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, France in Indochina, and others.
• The disintegration of the regime's military and security forces, evidenced in Ukraine in 2004 and 2013-14, as well as during the revolutions in Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1917-18.

Recognizing patterns of failure reveals that the Russian military's 2022 campaign in Ukraine exhibits many of these issues:

• Russian soldiers were misled to believe they were merely participating in exercises rather than invading Ukraine, leading to confusion when their expectations fell short.
• Militaries reflect the societal structures that create them. A corrupt regime fosters a dysfunctional military that struggles to sustain its personnel and equipment, resulting in soldiers abandoning their gear or looting for survival.
• Equipment failures highlight the systemic issues of a kleptocratic state, where corruption undermines military effectiveness.
• Many soldiers on the front lines near Kyiv are not ethnic Russians but individuals from regions rich in resources, where poverty drives enlistment.
• The Russian military often neglects to notify families of fallen soldiers, reflecting a lack of care within its ranks.
• Troops stationed near Chernobyl have faced radiation exposure due to dangerous orders, emphasizing that careless militaries often meet defeat, contrary to Napoleon’s belief that morale heavily influences outcomes. This neglect has led to mutinies and discontent among the ranks.