The Megadrought Series

Is The Megadrought Over Or Just On Hiatus?

A single favorable winter has transformed the landscape. But will this be a lasting change?

In the accompanying maps, "S" denotes short-term drought (typically lasting less than six months) and "L" represents long-term drought (over six months), with "S.L." indicating a mix of both. The deeper the red, the more severe the drought. While California appears stable, another dry year could plunge it back into drought. My home state, New Mexico, along with much of Texas, faces drought challenges. The Midwest also shows concerning signs, impacting our agricultural heartland. New to the map are Louisiana and Mississippi, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor and the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Is Water the New Gold Standard in the West?

For three years, I've delved into the megadrought affecting the Southwest. Hydrology has become a surprisingly captivating subject for me, resulting in a series of 24 articles.

Initially, I did not aim for a global viewpoint. Instead, I concentrated on the local impacts of climate change, especially concerning the vital Colorado River.

In New Mexico, most water flows into the Rio Grande and subsequently into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the continental divide runs jaggedly along the western part of the state, directing water westward into the Colorado River, which we share. Our contributions come from the San Juan River in the north and the Gila River in the south.

This river influences seven states within the Colorado River Basin, covering over 21% of the U.S. land area (notably, Northern California and Nevada source their water differently). Lake Powell supplies electricity to these states, including even Nebraska, which is outside the basin.

To clarify, the Upper Colorado River Basin consists of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico, while the Lower Basin includes Arizona, Nevada, and California.

Water disputes have a long history in the West, dating back to the early 20th century. One notable event involved William Mulholland’s plan to divert water from the Owens Valley to Los Angeles through an aqueduct built between 1908 and 1913. He covertly acquired water rights from local farmers, leaving them without resources. Although they fought back, development prevailed, transforming the Owens Valley, once fertile, into a more arid landscape.

The Colorado River is governed by a complex array of compacts, federal laws, international treaties, court rulings, contracts, and regulatory guidelines, collectively known as "the Law of the River." Established in 1922, the Compact faced ratification challenges, particularly from Arizona, which did not sign on until 1944 due to fierce disputes with California culminating in an 11-year Supreme Court case.

The original Colorado River Compact allocated water among the states based on an assumed annual flow of 16.4 million acre-feet. This allocation did not account for Mexico's share or the needs of the 30 tribes dependent on the river, nor did it consider evaporation losses. The Compact has undergone several amendments, with new guidelines expected by 2026.

So, is the megadrought over?

For my national and global news, I often turn to the Los Angeles Times. Its stance on several issues, including the Colorado River's impact on the Southwest, resonates with me. Last year, reports on this topic flooded the front page daily. Recently, however, coverage has dwindled.

In these quieter times, the voices of skeptics seem to amplify.

California currently appears to have adequate water supplies (though it does not). Lakes Mead and Powell are projected to be about fifty feet higher than last year, but this does not mean they are safe; both remain under 40% capacity.

The United Nations has raised alarms over climate risks if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On November 17, the Earth briefly registered a 2.06°C increase.

> “Humanity has just lived through the hottest 12-month period in at least 125,000 years,” states David Reay of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.

> “2023 is ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest year on record,” notes The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The World

June was historically the hottest month until July surpassed it. A United Nations report indicated that July not only marked a record high but also represented the hottest month in 125,000 years—August followed suit. September and October also recorded unprecedented heat. This year is on track to be the warmest ever documented.

Another critical element in these records is sea temperature. On July 31, the global average sea temperature hit a record 69.73°F, with temperatures exceeding 100°F along Florida's coast in June and July, an occurrence almost unimaginable. The elevated sea temperatures are leading to coral reef deaths, which are crucial for biodiversity and coastline protection. Coupled with rising sea levels from polar ice melt, this situation foreshadows further tragedies.

The Colorado River

A viable solution for the Colorado River involves significantly reducing consumption. However, agriculture accounts for approximately 75% of the river's water usage in California and Arizona. Where will our food come from, especially crops like alfalfa that sustain livestock? Without changes, beef prices will continue to rise.

The challenges facing the Colorado River are far from resolved. Even with a snowpack at 160% of normal last winter, the river's flow remains about 20% lower than historical averages. Soil dryness persists, and increased evaporation in a warming climate will diminish runoff. Furthermore, 40 million people rely on the river, and their needs will not disappear quickly.

> “I think doomsday may get pushed off another year, giving us time to devise practical solutions,” suggests Camille Touton, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner.

El Niño

After completing six years of college, I relocated to Santa Fe, New Mexico, a challenging place to start a career, but I was ready to leave Nebraska. In 1982, a potent El Niño was underway, resulting in typical monsoonal rains arriving early that summer.

El Niño, officially termed the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), occurs when warm water develops in the central and eastern Pacific. This phenomenon usually brings increased rainfall to the southern U.S. and cooler temperatures, while the northern border experiences the opposite.

La Niña lived up to its promise, but El Niño appears to be following suit in terms of elevated temperatures. Most of the Southwest has experienced above-average warmth, and even southern New Mexico's mountain ranges have seen snowfall. Yet, we remain nearly 100% under drought conditions. The state has experienced extreme heat and dryness throughout my residency. Map by NOAA.

Typically, El Niño events occur every two to seven years, and the current one is forecast to be stronger than usual, with increased precipitation expected in the southern U.S.

The La Niña phase, characterized by cooler equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific, led to some of the most severe drought conditions the Southwest has faced in recent years. It also contributed to the dry spells initiating the drought in Louisiana.

With El Niño transitioning, temperatures have remained elevated. The winter of 2022–2023 witnessed extraordinary precipitation events, attributed to the ENSO transition. However, climate experts caution that this anomaly may give way to the hotter, drier conditions expected due to anthropogenic climate change.

The summer of 2023 was marked by extreme heat, with Phoenix recording a staggering 31 days above 110°F—a new record. Albuquerque experienced 17 days at or above 100°F, where typically there would be none to five. Houston endured the longest heat wave of any major city globally, with 22 consecutive days of extreme heat in late summer. My observations in New Mexico reveal a state that has faced relentless heat and aridity.

While southern Arizona and New Mexico saw some monsoonal rainfall, northern New Mexico faced a "nonsoon," with 77 consecutive dry days during the typical monsoon season in Albuquerque.

Remnants of Hurricane Hilary brought unexpected rainfall to the western Southwest during an otherwise dry season. Death Valley National Park experienced its wettest day on record, resulting in landslides and road damage, leading to temporary closures. Badwater Basin, the lowest point in the U.S., was briefly revitalized by this runoff.

> “El Niño is going to have significant impacts next year, likely contributing to even greater warming as we approach 2024,” warns Andrew Pershing, President of Science for Climate Central.

Mississippi River

While I typically don’t cover regions this far east, weather patterns travel west to east in the northern hemisphere; thus, as we face challenges in the West, regions in the Midwest and East are also affected.

Given that this El Niño is predicted to be intense, the Mississippi River watershed may face adverse conditions. The Ohio Valley and the headwaters of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers are expected to receive below-normal precipitation this winter.

For the second consecutive year, Tower Rock, a stone formation in the Mississippi River south of St. Louis, is accessible by foot due to the extreme drought affecting the region. The flow in 2023 was even lower than the record low of the previous year.

Louisiana has been severely impacted this year, with much of the state experiencing some level of drought; approximately 50% is currently facing "exceptional drought," the most severe classification.

The Mississippi River cargo system is vital for transporting 60% of U.S. grain production, predominantly corn, wheat, and hay. During harvest season, the drought has disrupted barge traffic, necessitating dredging efforts to maintain navigability. The river must maintain a depth of nine feet and a width of 300 feet for two-way barge traffic.

In Bayou Country, where the Mississippi Delta begins, low water levels have allowed saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to intrude further upstream, threatening water supplies in Plaquemines Parish, prompting advisories for residents to drink only bottled water.

The "saltwater wedge," which pushes inland from the Gulf, has encroached dangerously close to New Orleans' water supply. The river's diminished flow is insufficient to counteract the ocean's saltwater, which is denser and flows along the riverbed. The wedge's strength has intensified due to upstream drought conditions.

Additionally, rising sea levels exacerbate the situation. Approximately 18 million people rely on the river for drinking water, and repeated saltwater incursions may overwhelm protective measures.

Warm, dry weather persisted in the Mississippi watershed into November, further depleting river and tributary flows.

Previously, Arizona water officials had proposed a study for a pipeline extending from the Mississippi River to supply areas in New Mexico, Arizona, and California. However, with the Mississippi now consistently experiencing lower volumes, such proposals seem unlikely to gain traction.

> In these changing times, New Orleans is a city that is misplaced.

How many more times will it evade disaster? Intensifying hurricanes also pose significant risks.

The winter forecast for the upper Mississippi and Missouri River basins anticipates less snowfall and warmer temperatures, suggesting that this scenario may recur. Dredging efforts continue as water levels remain low upstream, halting barge traffic during critical harvest periods.

Next, we will return our focus to the West, examining specific regions and their plans for adapting to a future with diminished water resources.

Sources for this Series Include:

• Los Angeles Times, 10/17/2023
• The Texas Observer, 10/11/2023
• The Arizona Republic, multiple reports, 9/28, 9/29, 9/30, 10/1/2023
• NOAA, NASA, NWS, and the United Nations
• "Arizona is running out of water. Big tech data centers are partly to blame" by Alistair Barr in Insider.com, 06/30/2023
• "Tower Rock is normally only accessible by boat. Here’s what it looks like now" by Eric Zerkel and Jullian Sykes, CNN, 9/23/2023
• "Saltwater pushing into Mississippi River could compromise Louisiana’s drinking water" by Tara Suter, The Hill, 9/23/2023
• "Water levels are going up in the West’s massive reservoirs. Has the water crisis been averted?" by Trevor Hughes in USA Today, 4/29/2023
• Beef2Live.com
• "Israel went from water scarcity to surplus. Can it help Utah and the Great Salt Lake?" by Ben Winslow in The Deseret News, Salt Lake City, 4/30/2023
• "Utah’s Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints donates water shares to Great Salt Lake" by David DeMille in the St. George Spectrum, 3/15/2023
• Copernicus Climate Change Service
• David Reay, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, 11/9/2023
• "A new Southern California water storage project aims to keep supplies flowing during drought" by Ian James in Los Angeles Times, 10/29/2023
• "Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado Announce Agreement After Years of Dispute over the Lower Rio Grande River" ~ Press Release from the Office of Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas
• "When California’s Water Wars Turned Violent" by Kirstin Butler in PBS’ "The American Experience," 3/24/2022
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District