What Is Confirmation Bias?

> “Confirmation bias is the inclination to seek out, interpret, favor, and remember information in a manner that affirms one's pre-existing beliefs.” — Wikipedia

Clarifying Confirmation Bias

In simpler terms, it can be illustrated as follows:

If you're interested in the psychology behind it, here’s how confirmation bias distinguishes itself from other related concepts:

• Confirmation Bias: Your existing beliefs influence your perception of information.
• Wishful Blindness: Your self-interest affects how you perceive information, particularly in ethical contexts. (It's different from willful blindness, a legal term.)
• Filter Bubble: This pertains to intellectual seclusion in online echo chambers. If algorithms show you content you prefer, you’re less likely to encounter differing viewpoints.

Instead of reiterating the typical advice about escaping echo chambers — which you’ve likely encountered before — let’s focus on confirmation bias, which has been extensively studied since the 1960s.

Confirmation bias operates subtly: even when faced with opposing information, you may fail to absorb it or may misremember it. You might find reasons to disregard it altogether, perpetually searching until you find data that aligns with your views. This phenomenon underscores that perception can distort facts, making a single piece of data subject to various interpretations.

In essence, confirmation bias becomes a formidable adversary in data science, complicating objective analysis. It suggests that facts become malleable, influenced by individual perspective, rendering diligent research insufficient to counteract cognitive biases.

Confirmation Bias and COVID-19

In summary: When you hold strong views regarding COVID-19 and seek supporting evidence, you will likely find it — regardless of how extreme those beliefs may be. Conversely, you may struggle to accept contradicting evidence.

If anxiety leads you to seek comforting information online, confirmation bias could inadvertently amplify your fears.

Panic tends to be counterproductive; it clouds judgment and disrupts clear thinking, ultimately deteriorating your mood and coping abilities. In challenging times, maintaining a calm and realistic outlook is far more beneficial.

Strategies to Combat Confirmation Bias

Recognizing that a strong initial opinion can skew both decision-making and emotional well-being, here are four effective strategies to mitigate confirmation bias:

1. Maintain Flexible Opinions.
2. Prioritize Decisions Over Opinions.
3. Concentrate on Controllable Factors.
4. Rearrange Your Approach to Information.

#### Maintain Flexible Opinions

This can be challenging, particularly if you’ve immersed yourself in sensationalized news. However, it’s valuable to keep an open mind and not cling too tightly to opinions, even if they seem data-driven.

Awareness of overconfidence bias — where individuals overestimate their judgment accuracy — is crucial. Adopting a flexible stance can diminish the influence of biases on your perspective.

The most effective decision-makers exhibit adaptability; they embrace new information and acknowledge errors. Rather than idolizing those with unyielding beliefs, recognize that they may struggle to integrate fresh insights due to confirmation bias.

#### Prioritize Decisions Over Opinions

In my view, adopting a decision-centric approach can alleviate the emotional weight of your opinions. If an opinion does not lead to action, its significance diminishes.

Consider this: believing in the Loch Ness monster matters little if that belief doesn’t affect your actions. Conversely, if your beliefs shape your decisions, evaluate your opinions in light of their potential impact.

Ask yourself, “Does this information prompt a change in my actions?” If it does, identify which decisions are influenced.

#### Focus on Controllable Factors

During the pandemic, many of us face constraints on decision-making. Recognizing these limitations can help redirect focus towards what you can control.

For instance, when I realized attending theaters was no longer feasible, I shifted my attention to other decisions that remained available, like remote volunteering or online shopping.

Stepping away from worries about uncontrollable factors does not equate to ignorance. Instead, consider how to use your mental energy effectively by focusing on actionable decisions rather than hypothetical scenarios regarding others’ choices.

#### Rearrange Your Approach to Information

The primary solution to confirmation bias lies in structuring your decision-making process prior to seeking information.

Frame your decision-making to avoid adjusting your criteria based on outcomes. If you’re interested in further guidance, I have a comprehensive article along with a COVID-19 decision-making guide.