Intel's Lunar Lake Launch: A New Player in the CPU Arena
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The Rise of ARM and the Threat to Intel's Dominance
Throughout the initial two decades of my software engineering career, x86 CPUs were the only processors that truly mattered. Intel, the architect of the x86 architecture, held a commanding lead in the market. Competing processor families, such as Motorola 68000, PowerPC, SPARC, Alpha, and RISC-V, struggled to gain traction, while Intel's x86 remained preeminent.
With the advent of the smartphone era, ARM emerged as a formidable competitor, mirroring the market dominance Intel had once enjoyed with the IBM PC. As Intel allowed its x86 architecture to stagnate, ARM processors evolved rapidly. By 2020, Apple's ARM chips had become so powerful that they transitioned from the iPhone to fully replace Intel's x86 processors in all Mac laptops and desktops.
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A New Wave of ARM Competition
Intel is not the only player facing challenges. Qualcomm has also entered the arena this year with its Snapdragon X Series processors. As reported by Tom's Hardware, ARM CEO Rene Haas anticipates that numerous processor vendors will enter the Windows PC market over the next three years. This increase in ARM PC options is expected to further diminish Intel's market share. According to Counterpoint Research, ARM-based PCs are projected to see their market share rise from 14% today to 25% by 2027.
The growing popularity of ARM-based PCs, capable of running macOS, has enabled Apple to capture a staggering 90% of the ARM notebook market. However, widespread support for Windows and Office365, along with swift adoption of native ARM applications, will be crucial for ARM's penetration into the PC market. Once these factors are addressed, ARM-based PCs could become a viable choice for everyday users and businesses alike.
The Pushback from Intel
While Intel's outlook appears increasingly grim, the company is not surrendering easily. Following Apple's announcement of its ARM Mac plans at WWDC in June 2020, Intel appointed a technically adept CEO, Pat Gelsinger, and unveiled a roadmap aimed at delivering five generations of processor technology by 2025. The Alder Lake (Intel 7) was released on November 4, 2021, followed by Raptor Lake (Intel 7) on October 20, 2022, and Meteor Lake (Intel 4) on December 14, 2023. This week, Intel introduced its Intel® Core™ Ultra 200V series processors, which aim to set a new benchmark for mobile AI performance.
On September 3, 2024, Intel launched its Intel Core Ultra 200V series, marking a significant advancement in mobile AI capabilities. This latest family of x86 processors promises exceptional performance, improved power efficiency, significant graphical enhancements, and enhanced security—essential features for users looking to create, connect, play, or learn on the go.
Intel's roadmap slide indicates that Lunar Lake was intended to utilize the Intel 18A process to regain the performance-per-watt advantage. However, the new processor's compute tile is produced on TSMC's N3B process node, and even the platform controller tile is manufactured using TSMC's N6 process node. This raises questions about how well Lunar Lake will compete with its rivals.
The competition is heating up as benchmark results are starting to emerge. The best single-core score for Intel's Core Ultra 7 268 V is 2,915, while the best multi-core score is 11,448. In contrast, the M4-based iPad Pro achieves a single-core score of 3,658 and a multi-core score of 13,227. The M4's performance could potentially be even higher when utilized in Macs, especially as its more powerful counterparts are expected to join the lineup.
Anticipation for Apple's M4 Macs
Recent reports suggest that Apple is gearing up to launch four new Mac models featuring M4-series chips before the year's end. This lineup includes an entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M4 chip, new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro models equipped with M4 Pro and M4 Max chips, a new iMac with the M4 chip, and a redesigned Mac mini with M4 and M4 Pro options. While most of these devices are expected to be minor refreshes focusing primarily on chip upgrades, they may also feature 16GB of memory as a standard offering for the first time.
Conclusion: A Competitive Landscape Ahead
Lunar Lake is poised to be a significant upgrade over last year's Meteor Lake, potentially mitigating further shifts toward Qualcomm's Snapdragon X Series. However, its reliance on TSMC's manufacturing process, which began high-volume production in 2022, falls short of the performance-per-watt leadership that Intel 18A aimed to achieve. The true comparison between Apple and Intel will become clearer in November when both M4 Macs and Lunar Lake laptops become available. It seems that Intel may not reclaim the CPU throne from Apple until the anticipated launch of its Intel 18A Panther Lake processors in 2025.
If you're interested in tech histories, consider reading "Software Engineering A Better Life." It chronicles a software startup's journey from inception to acquisition during the pivotal revolutions in personal computing and local area networks in the 1980s.