Germany, once the economic engine of Europe, is now grappling with severe deindustrialization stemming from a substantial decline in energy supplies, with no clear resolution on the horizon. The widespread narrative portraying Germany as a beacon of renewable energy innovation starkly contrasts with its ongoing reliance on affordable fossil fuels—now jeopardized by economic conflicts with its primary energy supplier. However, these economic challenges have deeper origins that could soon impact all industrial nations more than anticipated.

The trajectory of energy consumption in Germany over the last three decades reveals a gradual decline. The peak energy intensity of German industry occurred in the 1980s, after which there has been a consistent decrease in coal and nuclear energy utilization. One might wonder why coal mining ceased in the 1990s—was it a proactive step towards climate consciousness, or a deliberate move to detach industry from fossil fuel dependence?

The reality is likely different. According to Clean Energy Wire, a proponent of renewable energy, the post-war economic boom in Germany relied heavily on hard coal from North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland to fuel West Germany's industries. However, by December 2018, domestic hard coal mining had effectively vanished due to its diminished competitiveness.

Germany has approximately 83 billion tonnes of hard coal reserves, with only 36 million tonnes considered mineable. Unfortunately, the geological challenges associated with these resources render mining prohibitively expensive. In 2017, the cost of extracting one tonne of hard coal in Germany was around 180 euros, while imported coal prices ranged from 86 to 96 euros per tonne.

As easily accessible resources deplete, the industry faces daunting challenges that necessitate extensive mining operations, often involving significant technical complications. These include rock bursts, gas emissions, and temperature fluctuations, which all contribute to rising operational costs due to increased energy consumption for safety measures and equipment.

The overarching issue is the continued dependence on mining for energy and materials essential for societal development. Extracting energy resources like coal can lead to a downward spiral where rising costs make electricity generated from coal increasingly unaffordable, resulting in mine closures and reduced investments.

It’s essential to note that the same issue applies to renewable resources. The extraction of essential materials like copper, silicon, and lithium is becoming more expensive and energy-intensive as easily accessible deposits diminish, echoing the resource depletion cycle seen in coal mining. The delay in transitioning to renewables has created a precarious situation: before recycling becomes viable, extraction must occur.

This relentless increase in energy costs is well-documented and irreversible. Despite efforts to enhance energy efficiency, resource depletion remains an overriding concern. In Germany, the reliance on imported coal from countries like Russia, the United States, and Australia has become a necessity due to the lack of viable domestic reserves.

The situation worsened following the EU's ban on coal imports from Russia in August 2022, severely affecting Germany's supply of metallurgical-grade hard coal essential for its steel industry. This raises critical questions about how Germany will sustain its economy after losing half of its coal imports, particularly for coking coal.

The political elite may have presumed that companies would source these critical materials elsewhere. However, the abrupt cessation of such a vital energy source amid a global coal shortage raises questions about the rationale behind these decisions.

Resource depletion is a pressing issue affecting many countries, notably China, where supply struggles to meet demand, resulting in soaring prices. The EU's import ban exacerbated these challenges, pushing coal prices to unprecedented levels and impacting industries reliant on affordable fossil fuels.

As global coal prices reach levels that exceed breakeven points for German mines, coal production is experiencing a resurgence, albeit at significant environmental costs. Building and operating deep mines is complex and energy-intensive, and high prices do not necessarily translate to increased coal availability in a country that has exhausted its easily accessible reserves.

Resource depletion is fundamentally an economic phenomenon. As high-quality, easily accessible resources dwindle, industries are forced to pursue lower-grade options located deeper underground, leading to rising costs that eventually threaten energy production stability.

Germany is currently facing this reality, and while imports have temporarily masked the issue, the eventual loss of these external sources will bring harsh realities to light. The depletion of resources is a global issue, and the challenges faced by Germany's coal industry will inevitably resonate worldwide.

The future is unfolding unevenly, as William Gibson famously noted. What we are witnessing since 2021 may be the onset of an unprecedented energy crisis, exacerbated by pandemics, conflicts, and poor policies that have accelerated the depletion of local, albeit low-quality, resources.

A collective effort for greater awareness, coordination, and international collaboration is essential to address these challenges, rather than resorting to conflict and hastening the depletion of humanity’s mineral resources.

Will this change occur? The answer lies in our collective hands.

Until next time, B